With the recent market churn, I'm thinking it's time for another iron condor trade. I haven't done one f these for a while simply because the market has been so bullish.
SPY 135/133/126/124 iron condor
||1. Exit if I can lock in
60% of my
initial credit (i.e. $.44)
2. Exit either side if I can do so for 20% of the creidt (i.e. $.22)
3. Exit if within 4-7 days of expiration
With the increased volatility and a little more time, this trade has slightly more juice in it.
As you can see from the chart of the SPY, there has been a strong trend of several months of bullishness followed by a month of pullback and then a resumption of the trend. I mentioned in the last newsletter that we could possibly see some range bound trading for a little while and it's beginning to appear that is the case.
At the moment the medium term bullish trend appears to still be intact. That being the case, I think this is a good opportunity for an iron condor. What I expect to happen is that we may see additional selling, possibly down to the $1275 level. That should provide an opportunity to close the call spread. Then the ideal case would be to see a rebound up to the recent highs, which would provide an opportunity to close the put side. Of course small movement in a sideways channel would work as well.
As I usually do for an iron condor trade, I'm looking to sell a short strike for both the put and call having a probability of expiring (ITM) of between 30 and 35%. I also want to sell a month that still has at least 20 days until expiration. At this point we're looking at the April $126 put and $133 call.
As most of my trades are, this is a $2 wide spread on either side. The
current credit for this iron condor trade is $1.09, which leaves a risk of
The thing about this approach to trading an iron condor is that the target reward/risk is roughly 1:1, although sometimes the odds slip to one side or the other. In this case, the reward is slightly higher than the risk yielding a reward/risk ratio of 1.19:1. As it turns out, this also means that since I'm risking $.91 to make $1.09, I'd realize a 119% return on my risk.
Another way of looking at this trade is to consider the probability of success. In this case, I'll define 'success' as breaking even or better. As this image from the analysis page shows, there is a $9 range that the SPY can move and still be a successful trade, as long as it ends between $124.91 and $134.09 by expiration. This translates to a 41% probability of success. That's a fairly decent probability to receive a 119% return on my risk.
Keep in mind with this iron condor trading plan I close the trade early when I can lock in 60% of the initial credit. By doing so, I'll actually improve my probability of success.
As I always point out, I want to make sure I limit my risk in each trade to just 2% of my portfolio value. At this point, my portfolio is valued at $17,323, which means I can risk $346 on this trade. Since my risk per contract is $.91 * 100 (or $91), that means I can sell 3 contracts and remain within my risk tolerance.
My plan is to sell 3 contracts of this iron condor trade, which will yield a total credit of $327. However, I also plan to close the trade early if I can do so by locking in 60% of the credit. That means I'll give back 40% (or $.44 per contract). This will leave me with a target profit of $196 if all goes as planned.
It is rarely the case that I close the entire trade all at once. In fact, the typical way I manage this trade is to attempt to close each side of the trade for 20% of the initial credit for a total of 40%. That means I'd attempt to close each leg of the iron condor for $.22 debit.
Just to summarize, I will exit under the following conditions.
In addition, I will monitor this trade to see if any adjustments are necessary. I want to be careful not to mess with the trade too much but sometimes adjustments can help improve the odds and profitability.
In this final section I want to take a moment to analyze the impact of this fairly neutral trade to the overall portfolio. The prior trade I had on was a bullish trade that resulted in positive delta to my portfolio.
This trade is relatively neutral but adds additional theta. This is handy right now since the other trade now has negative delta as it's being overrun.
The market is beginning to establish a short term direction. As a result, the move up today resulted in the put side of the spread closing for the target debit price of $.22.
This iron condor trade has now become a short call vertical (or call credit spread). It's interesting as you look at the last few weeks how this position has been stressed on both sides.
Let's take a moment and look at the current market. The low point was on Wednesday, March 16 and was largely news driven with the earthquake in Japan the Friday before and ensuing fears regarding potential nuclear reactor issues as well as turmoil in Libya and Bahrain. By mid week, traders seem to have gotten over most of their fears.
Why didn't the sell off during that time cause the call spread to close? There are three main reasons.
The upshot is that if the rally continues, the call spread will be threatened. However, consider that the SPY has moved a fair amount already without much of a pause. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SPY test the $132/133 level and pull back initially. With just 3 weeks until expiration, the theta should start melting away much more quickly. And with a continued move up volatility should drop, which will cause the price of the options to drop as well.
For now I don't plan to adjust the position in any way but I'm going to keep an eye out for opportunities.
I caught a kind of break today that allowed me to close my call spread and the overall iron condor trade for a profit.
After an extended period of time hanging out near the highs of the range, the SPY sold off enough today that I was able to buy back the call spread for $.60. When combined with the $.22 I paid to close the put spread, my total debit is $.82. Since I received $1.09 credit to enter the trade, I'm left with a profit of $.27. Since I sold 3 contracts on this trade, my trade profit is $81. While not nearly as profitable as anticipated, I still am pretty happy with the outcome given the bullishness in the market of late.
Could I have held out for a smaller debit? Maybe but I would also be risking the existing profit I could lock in if the market suddenly reversed again. Unfortunately as traders, we don't have a crystal ball to tell us what will happen at the right side of the chart. We can only surmise given the market action and technical analysis. We're always caught in a tension between exiting early and locking in a profit or loss versus waiting to get a better price but risking getting a worse price. For me the decision is clear when I have a trade that is in profit and time is running out. Take the money and run. There will always be another trade.
Rule # 1 - Don't lose money.
Rule # 2 - Never forget Rule #1 (Warren Buffet)